The surprising precursor for the downfall of values of overinflated assets worldwide is going to be something a lot of us count on, yet at the same time completely overlook; the price of a gallon of gas. There is absolutely no more emotional purchase that Americans are required to make and as the biggest set of consumers as a percentage of GDP of any developed nation, they may have the most to lose as the expense of this commodity reaches record highs.
Rising gas prices are a catch-22 problem for the US Federal Reserve. In reaction to frozen markets, the Fed eased monetary policy to encourage confidence and borrowing following the 2008 sub-prime crisis that nearly took down world markets. A necessary evil that developed in response to their unprecedented easing of money was the debasement of the US Dollar compared to other currencies. In the shift from the strong dollar, the price of all dollar denominated commodities have what's now becoming the last leg of a marathon run towards high prices not witnessed in history.
At the same time, geopolitical events haven't cooperated. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Libya are generally in a state of upheaval. As major producers of the light sweet crude needed to make the gasoline consumed by the US as well as other demanding buyers, the losses to production of these volatile times has been an essential cause for the increase in prices. At the same time, the closure for many refineries and the shortage of refinery capacity has touched off a speculative rush in gasoline, which threatens to push the retail price above $4 per gallon. Once this happens, a chain of events will unfold that will promote unprecedented revaluations connected with all asset classes.
Inflation that Causes Deflation
There is nothing more destructive than inflation, when considering the purchasing power of consumers. Nothing, that is, except for major deflation, like that which took place within the Great Depression of the 1930s. Even though the US Central Bank and central bankers around the world have done everything in their power to stimulate the expansion of loan demand thereby inflate their currencies, the unintended results of their actions has become crushing the purchasing power of commodities. Since commodities have risen compared to the purchasing power of the consumers who demand them, there is a price point, and beyond this point, consumers begin to demand less gasoline and their consumption behavior for all goods changes additionally.
American consumers have witnessed high prices at the pump before. In 2008, at the peak ahead of the sub-prime crisis, the cost of gasoline caused many individuals to have to make important choices, one of them was if they should pay for a tank of gas, or come up with a ballooning mortgage payment as their adjustable rate loans climbed with monetary tightening by the Fed, concerned with overheating inflation. While following it's dual mandate of promoting full employment tweaking inflation at a target rate, the Fed continues to be given the job of a conundrum. As monetary conditions are eased to allow for expansion in the money supply, the relative valuation of the dollar has weakened, causing inflation in commodities, which results in stronger inflation, which in 2008 was growing faster than employment.
Unintended Consequences
As a reaction to rising gasoline costs, consumers typically lower non-essential expenditures. These discretionary costs make-up nearly 2/3 of GDP in America alone so when they decline, so too do the revenues on the businesses employing them. The negative feedback loop that occurred once this happened in 2008 forced employers to reduce their payrolls and laid off as many people as they could. This in turn exacerbated the shrinking demand for discretionary goods and caused more companies to lay off much more people. Behind the curtain of layoffs and inflation, US consumers are aging into retirement en mass, nearly 80 million baby boomers is one step closer to retirement, and in a natural progression, are in the process of deleveraging and buying less services and goods.
Gas prices are the fulcrum for the beginning of deflation since they destroy disposable income, the lifeblood of the US consumer. Despite it's best efforts, the central bank cannot fight this by lowering interest rates to recreate additional growth in demand because once higher gas prices get into the system, they impact prices of so many other products or services that inflation grows to be chief concern; not unemployment. In a situation in which the prices of food, transportation, shipping, and anything else with a petroleum product input in its production becomes just slightly inflated in value, the demand for that good or service will fall incrementally. This incremental reduction in demand has a cascading affect on the demand for any other products or services consumed and suddenly the process takes on a mind of it's own and cannot be reversed.
Rising gas prices are a catch-22 problem for the US Federal Reserve. In reaction to frozen markets, the Fed eased monetary policy to encourage confidence and borrowing following the 2008 sub-prime crisis that nearly took down world markets. A necessary evil that developed in response to their unprecedented easing of money was the debasement of the US Dollar compared to other currencies. In the shift from the strong dollar, the price of all dollar denominated commodities have what's now becoming the last leg of a marathon run towards high prices not witnessed in history.
At the same time, geopolitical events haven't cooperated. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Libya are generally in a state of upheaval. As major producers of the light sweet crude needed to make the gasoline consumed by the US as well as other demanding buyers, the losses to production of these volatile times has been an essential cause for the increase in prices. At the same time, the closure for many refineries and the shortage of refinery capacity has touched off a speculative rush in gasoline, which threatens to push the retail price above $4 per gallon. Once this happens, a chain of events will unfold that will promote unprecedented revaluations connected with all asset classes.
Inflation that Causes Deflation
There is nothing more destructive than inflation, when considering the purchasing power of consumers. Nothing, that is, except for major deflation, like that which took place within the Great Depression of the 1930s. Even though the US Central Bank and central bankers around the world have done everything in their power to stimulate the expansion of loan demand thereby inflate their currencies, the unintended results of their actions has become crushing the purchasing power of commodities. Since commodities have risen compared to the purchasing power of the consumers who demand them, there is a price point, and beyond this point, consumers begin to demand less gasoline and their consumption behavior for all goods changes additionally.
American consumers have witnessed high prices at the pump before. In 2008, at the peak ahead of the sub-prime crisis, the cost of gasoline caused many individuals to have to make important choices, one of them was if they should pay for a tank of gas, or come up with a ballooning mortgage payment as their adjustable rate loans climbed with monetary tightening by the Fed, concerned with overheating inflation. While following it's dual mandate of promoting full employment tweaking inflation at a target rate, the Fed continues to be given the job of a conundrum. As monetary conditions are eased to allow for expansion in the money supply, the relative valuation of the dollar has weakened, causing inflation in commodities, which results in stronger inflation, which in 2008 was growing faster than employment.
Unintended Consequences
As a reaction to rising gasoline costs, consumers typically lower non-essential expenditures. These discretionary costs make-up nearly 2/3 of GDP in America alone so when they decline, so too do the revenues on the businesses employing them. The negative feedback loop that occurred once this happened in 2008 forced employers to reduce their payrolls and laid off as many people as they could. This in turn exacerbated the shrinking demand for discretionary goods and caused more companies to lay off much more people. Behind the curtain of layoffs and inflation, US consumers are aging into retirement en mass, nearly 80 million baby boomers is one step closer to retirement, and in a natural progression, are in the process of deleveraging and buying less services and goods.
Gas prices are the fulcrum for the beginning of deflation since they destroy disposable income, the lifeblood of the US consumer. Despite it's best efforts, the central bank cannot fight this by lowering interest rates to recreate additional growth in demand because once higher gas prices get into the system, they impact prices of so many other products or services that inflation grows to be chief concern; not unemployment. In a situation in which the prices of food, transportation, shipping, and anything else with a petroleum product input in its production becomes just slightly inflated in value, the demand for that good or service will fall incrementally. This incremental reduction in demand has a cascading affect on the demand for any other products or services consumed and suddenly the process takes on a mind of it's own and cannot be reversed.
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